Pirates-Marlins Preview Backs Over 8 Runs as Both Starters Rarely Last 5 Innings

Q: Can a rehabbing starter and a repurposed reliever defy the odds to prevent an offensive explosion in Miami?

Probably not over a full game, though they could suppress scoring briefly. The case for a lower-scoring game rests mainly on Carmen Mlodzinski’s quality, not volume. Pittsburgh is no longer using him as a conventional starter but as a multi-inning bulk reliever, and his season line remains strong: a mid-3.00s ERA, solid run prevention, and very few home runs allowed. His splitter and offspeed mix have graded well, and Miami’s hitters have almost no track record against him. If he gives Pittsburgh three clean innings, the Pirates can keep the game controlled early. The bigger uncertainty is Janson Junk. He has been rehabbing from shin inflammation, recently built back into the 60-pitch range, and had a brief scare after being hit by a comebacker, though X-rays were negative. Even if available, he is still a pitcher being stretched back out rather than one fully built for a normal starter’s workload. His season numbers — 4.63 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, plenty of contact allowed — suggest he is more capable of surviving than dominating. That is why the over remains the sounder expectation. Neither arm is projected to work deep, and that pushes significant innings onto bullpens. Miami has the steadier relief group, while Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been a recurring weakness. Mlodzinski could outperform the setup for a few innings, and Junk could be competitive if his stuff is crisp, but asking both situations to hold down offense for nine innings runs against the stronger evidence.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Aug 12

Over 8 runs is the recommended play for Pittsburgh at Miami, with both clubs still chasing National League Wild Card positioning in mid-August.
Carmen Mlodzinski carries a 3.51 ERA for Pittsburgh but has not worked more than three innings in any of his last 12 appearances, pointing quickly to a shaky Pirates pitching staff.
Janson Junk owns a 4.63 ERA for Miami and also rarely goes deep, with no outing longer than five innings in his last eight starts despite mostly limiting damage outside one six-run game in July.
Miami enters 61-59 and stronger at home, and its bullpen is viewed as better than Pittsburgh's, but the preview's main angle is that neither starter looks dominant enough to suppress scoring.