How might the strict voter eligibility rules for the runoff reshape the expected turnout and final results in South Carolina?

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The eligibility rules are likely to shrink the runoff electorate and make the result more dependent on a narrower slice of voters than in the first round. Under South Carolina law, only people who voted in the June Republican primary, those who voted in the Aug. 11 special Republican primary, or voters who skipped the June primaries can take part in the Aug. 25 Republican runoff. Anyone who voted in the June Democratic primary is barred. That restriction removes a pool of occasional crossover voters and limits campaigns to a more clearly defined Republican-leaning electorate. Runoffs already tend to draw fewer voters than the initial round, and South Carolina’s compressed two-week calendar usually reinforces that pattern. The practical effect is that organization, voter contact and turnout operations matter more than broad name recognition alone. Candidates with loyal supporters, strong county-level networks and the ability to identify eligible voters may gain an edge. That could help Darline Graham if she successfully consolidates voters who backed other eliminated candidates, especially those responsive to President Trump’s endorsement and to her new incumbency. It could help Ralph Norman if the smaller electorate is dominated by habitual conservative primary voters attracted to his long record on spending and fiscal restraint. The rules also mean that late persuasion is constrained: campaigns cannot expand the pool by appealing to June Democratic-primary voters. So the ru…

Mark Lynch Endorses Ralph Norman in Aug. 25 South Carolina Senate Runoff

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Mark Lynch Endorses Ralph Norman in Aug. 25 South Carolina Senate Runoff

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