Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 13
U.S. 10-Year Yield Falls to 4.672% as July CPI Trims September Hike Bets
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 13

U.S. 10-Year Yield Falls to 4.672% as July CPI Trims September Hike Bets

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 13

Summary

  • The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 2 basis points to 4.672% on Thursday, while the 2-year fell more than 2 basis points to 4.178% as traders reassessed the Fed path.
  • July CPI rose 0.1% from the prior month, matching expectations and prompting markets to pare back bets on a September rate hike after a second relatively encouraging core inflation reading.
  • Goldman Sachs said most FOMC voters would likely want to see August CPI and PPI before deciding on September, with July inflation numbers seen as acceptable.
  • Thursday’s next test is the July producer price index, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting a 0.2% monthly increase.
  • The softer rate-hike outlook also drew support from weaker employment data last week, easing pressure on the Fed to move immediately in September.

Insights

If July's cooling inflation was a mirage, could looming geopolitical energy shocks force a surprise Fed hike in September?
With shipping costs threatening to erase recent disinflation, are bond markets dangerously underestimating the risk of a stagflation trap?
Can the Federal Reserve truly control inflation, or are U.S. borrowing costs now at the mercy of global supply chains?