AARP Cuts 2027 Social Security COLA View to 3.5%, Urges CPI-E Shift

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo! Voices · Aug 13

AARP lowered its 2027 Social Security COLA forecast to 3.5% from 3.6%, implying about $73 more a month for the average retired worker based on July's $2,086 benefit.
TSCL also trimmed its estimate to 3.6% from 3.8%, yet said the projected average payment of about $2,007 would still trail typical older Americans' monthly living costs by roughly $700.
The push for change centers on the COLA formula: benefits now track CPI-W, which reflects urban workers' spending, while advocates want CPI-E to better capture seniors' heavier housing and medical costs.
AARP said a CPI-E-based COLA would have been higher in all but eight years from 1986 to 2025, and a beneficiary who started in 1986 would have received an 8.1% higher 2025 benefit.
CPI-E remains experimental, however, with smaller samples and methodological concerns that have so far kept Congress and the Social Security Administration from adopting it.