Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Aug 13
Colby Backs 3-Sub Aukus Sale as US Output Lags at 1.1 to 1.2 Boats a Year
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Aug 13

Colby Backs 3-Sub Aukus Sale as US Output Lags at 1.1 to 1.2 Boats a Year

3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Aug 13

Summary

  • Elbridge Colby said the Aukus submarine pact is "full steam ahead," marking a public endorsement from the Pentagon official who had been seen as skeptical during the Trump administration's review.
  • Three Virginia-class submarines are slated for sale to Australia from 2032, but Colby tied progress to a post-review "roadmap" and said Washington has made its expectations of Canberra clear in private.
  • US shipyards are producing only 1.1 to 1.2 Virginia-class boats a year, below the two a year needed for US requirements and the 2.33 rate needed before any submarine can be sold to Australia.
  • Australia's pathway still stretches into the 2040s and beyond: up to five US boats may be bought first, while domestically built Aukus-class submarines are not due in the water until the early 2040s.
  • Malcolm Turnbull told an Australian inquiry this week the A$368 billion plan could leave Australia with no submarines, arguing US law bars any transfer that would weaken the American fleet.

Insights

With US shipyards struggling to build enough submarines, could the AUKUS deal leave Australia completely defenseless by 2032?
Will AI innovations and massive defense investments actually overcome the crippling industrial bottlenecks threatening the AUKUS submarine timeline?