Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Aug 13

Analyst Predicts First Losses for 13 CFP Contenders, With 4 Falling Before September Ends

Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Aug 13

Analyst Predicts First Losses for 13 CFP Contenders, With 4 Falling Before September Ends

Q: With the 2026 season kickoff weeks away, which top-ranked powerhouse will be the first to have their perfect record shattered on the road?

Ohio State is the top-ranked powerhouse most likely to lose its unbeaten record first, with the projected stumble coming on the road at Texas on Sept. 12. That forecast is the earliest among the marquee first-loss projections attached to national contenders. The matchup is already being treated as one of the defining games of the 2026 season: preseason No. 1 Ohio State at No. 4 Texas in Austin, under the lights, in a rematch of last year’s elite showdown. The article’s reasoning is that the Buckeyes are replacing eight defensive starters, leaving an inexperienced unit vulnerable to Texas’ vertical passing attack and improved offensive line. The supporting schedule and preview material reinforces that this is the earliest major danger spot for a top-ranked team. Ohio State’s trip to Texas is set for Sept. 12, earlier than other projected first losses such as LSU at Ole Miss on Sept. 19, Texas at Tennessee on Sept. 26, and Alabama against Georgia on Oct. 10. Ticket demand, national-TV placement and preseason rankings all underline how high-stakes this game is expected to be. Other contenders are also forecast to take their first loss on the road later in the season — including Oregon at Ohio State, Notre Dame at Miami, and Georgia at South Carolina — but none comes sooner than Ohio State’s visit to Austin. So if one elite unbeaten is expected to fall first away from home, the leading answer is Ohio State at Texas in Week 2.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Aug 13

Four projected first losses land before September ends: Ohio State at Texas on Sept. 12, LSU at Ole Miss on Sept. 19, and Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma all on Sept. 26.
The picks hinge on early schedule traps and roster questions, including Ohio State replacing 8 defensive starters, Texas facing a hostile Tennessee road test and Oklahoma opening SEC play at Georgia.
Several unbeaten runs are forecast to last into November, with Oregon projected to start 8-0 before losing at Ohio State on Nov. 7 and Notre Dame's first stumble coming that same day against Miami.
Georgia's danger point comes latest among the top SEC powers — at South Carolina on Nov. 21 — while Indiana's 22-game winning streak is projected to end against Ohio State on Oct. 17.
Miami is the lone contender without a predicted regular-season loss, with its Nov. 7 showdown at Notre Dame framed as a possible No. 1-vs.-No. 2 game and a battle for the CFP's top seed.