COMEX-LME Copper Spread Signals 14.6% Odds of New U.S. Tariffs
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 14
COMEX-LME Copper Spread Signals 14.6% Odds of New U.S. Tariffs
1 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 14
Summary
14.6% is the tariff probability implied by the current COMEX premium over delivered LME copper for a proposed 15% U.S. refined-copper duty by January 2027, according to Societe Generale.
37% is the implied probability of a 30% duty by January 2028, reflecting how traders now use the COMEX-LME spread as a live gauge of Section 232 tariff risk rather than a traditional arbitrage signal.
200,000 metric tons of copper entered the U.S. in July—the highest in 12 years—as a wider COMEX premium keeps pulling metal into the country ahead of a delayed Commerce Department decision.
50% tariffs already apply to semi-finished copper products, while Commerce has recommended phased universal tariffs on refined copper as Washington worries about import dependence amid AI, grid and defense demand.
Near $6.90 a pound last week, copper is also being supported by tight mine supply and intensifying U.S.-China competition for metal, leaving the market constructive but volatile.