Casey Keller Warns 5-Year BESS Site Bets Can Backfire as US Storage Revenues Tighten
Updated
Updated · Energy-Storage.news · Aug 14
Casey Keller Warns 5-Year BESS Site Bets Can Backfire as US Storage Revenues Tighten
1 articles · Updated · Energy-Storage.news · Aug 14
Summary
Casey Keller said US battery developers should stop chasing the most volatile nodes, warning a site picked early in a 5-year development cycle can lose its edge once new solar, wind or storage enters.
Top-25% locations with persistent volatility are safer than today's top 5%, he argued, because market price formation shifts as soon as competing assets are built.
Forecasting is another weak point: Keller said some revenue projections miss by a factor of 5, often because assumptions about market rules, fundamentals and generation mix are wrong.
Caerus Commodities tries to close that gap with trading-as-a-service, using hybrid algorithmic and human optimization while avoiding battery ownership to limit conflicts of interest and benchmark client performance.
The warning comes as US BESS markets mature and saturate, squeezing revenues and exposing static bidding and weak state-of-charge management ahead of the 15-16 September Battery Asset Management Summit in California.