Updated
Updated · Morning Brew · Aug 15
US Retail Sales Fall 0.6% in July as June Deal Events Pulled Spending Forward
Updated
Updated · Morning Brew · Aug 15

US Retail Sales Fall 0.6% in July as June Deal Events Pulled Spending Forward

3 articles · Updated · Morning Brew · Aug 15

Summary

  • July US retail sales dropped 0.6% from June—the first monthly decline in nine months and the biggest since May 2025—missing expectations.
  • A 2.2% fall at nonstore retailers helped drive the pullback after Amazon Prime Day and similar Walmart+ and Target Circle promotions shifted into June, when online sales had jumped 7.7%.
  • Falling gasoline prices weighed on the headline figure, but sales still weakened even after accounting for that effect, pointing to softer underlying demand.
  • An 8% slide in consumer sentiment, a 23,000 drop in payrolls and inflation still near 3.4% add to signs of strain, reinforcing expectations the Fed may hold rates steady in September.

Insights

How much longer can rising restaurant sales hide the underlying weakness in everyday retail spending as household budgets tighten?
Does the July retail slump signal real economic trouble, or is it just a hangover from June's World Cup spending spree?