Banks Keep Malaysia 2026 GDP Forecasts at 4.8%-5.4% as 2Q Growth Hits 6.0%
Updated
Updated · BERNAMA · Aug 14
Banks Keep Malaysia 2026 GDP Forecasts at 4.8%-5.4% as 2Q Growth Hits 6.0%
3 articles · Updated · BERNAMA · Aug 14
Summary
Malaysia’s 2026 growth outlook stayed upbeat across major investment banks, with forecasts clustered between 4.8% and 5.4% after stronger-than-expected first-half data.
6.0% second-quarter growth and 5.8% expansion in 1H 2026 reinforced that view, with RHB holding a 5.4% forecast and citing resilient domestic demand plus strong electrical and electronics exports.
MBSB raised its 2026 projection to 5.1% from 4.5%, pointing to stronger external trade, especially E&E and petroleum products, alongside tourism and income gains with inflation contained.
CIMB kept a more cautious 4.8% call, saying net exports and a mining rebound are doing more of the work as domestic demand eased to 5.1% from 5.2% in the first quarter.
Banks still flagged geopolitical tensions, tariff risks and high-base effects in 2H 2026, while RHB and CIMB expect Bank Negara to leave the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%.
With domestic demand showing signs of easing, will looming fuel subsidy costs and geopolitical conflicts derail Malaysia's optimistic economic trajectory?
Despite a booming 2026 GDP and a massive surge in tech exports, why does the Malaysian ringgit remain vulnerable to global headwinds?
Could Malaysia's heavy reliance on semiconductor exports become a critical vulnerability if new global tariff policies disrupt the supply chain?