Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 14
Dollar Index Falls 0.3% After July Retail Sales Drop 0.6%
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 14

Dollar Index Falls 0.3% After July Retail Sales Drop 0.6%

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 14

Summary

  • U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% in July, missing forecasts for a 0.1% rise and pushing the dollar index down 0.3% to 99.67.
  • The weak spending data reinforced signs of a broader slowdown after soft inflation readings and a July payrolls report showing unexpected job losses.
  • Fed expectations shifted further, with traders pricing only a 31% chance of a September rate hike and a 64% chance of one by December.
  • The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1564, while the yen strengthened 0.1% to 159.35 per dollar as markets weighed a possible Bank of Japan hike in September.
  • That yen gain remained fragile: the currency was still headed for a roughly 0.7% weekly loss, and traders see 160 per dollar as a likely trigger for fresh Japanese intervention.

Insights

With consumers finally slashing their spending, could the Federal Reserve be forced to cut interest rates much sooner than expected?
Are rising credit card defaults the hidden trigger that will collapse the dollar's strength despite lingering inflation?
How will the Federal Reserve's new unpredictable communication style trigger unexpected turbulence in global currency markets?