$100 billion-plus in tariff refunds is already lifting U.S. profits and growth, with Apollo estimating the money will add 0.2 percentage point to third-quarter GDP now tracking at 4.3%.
Forty S&P 500 companies have booked $9.6 billion from the refunds, led by Apple at nearly $2.2 billion, as recipients including Nike, FedEx, Amazon and GM bolster earnings.
Those refunds follow the Supreme Court's February strike-down of IEEPA import taxes and now equal about 60% of the $166 billion the government had collected.
Apollo says the boost is landing alongside AI spending, tax cuts and reshoring, and argues July's reported 23,000 job loss masked underlying strength because seasonal quirks hit government and hospitality payrolls.
That stronger backdrop could keep rates higher for longer, even as some consumers sue for a share of the refunded money and carriers such as Amazon, FedEx and UPS promise to pass funds back.