Traders Lift November RBA Hike Odds to 45% on Persistent Inflation
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Aug 15
Traders Lift November RBA Hike Odds to 45% on Persistent Inflation
3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Aug 15
Summary
Swaps now imply a 45% chance of a quarter-point RBA rate hike by November, up from 38% before Tuesday’s policy decision.
Persistent inflation above the central bank’s target is driving the repricing, with investors betting the RBA may need to tighten again.
November 2026 interbank cash-rate futures on the ASX climbed to a more than three-month high on the meeting day, signaling stronger speculative positioning.
The move shows markets are increasingly testing the prospect that Australia’s easing cycle could be interrupted if price pressures fail to cool.