Updated

Updated · FanGraphs · Aug 17

Brewers Seize MLB's Best Record by 3 Games as Dodgers' 7-Game August Slide Deepens

Updated

Updated · FanGraphs · Aug 17

Brewers Seize MLB's Best Record by 3 Games as Dodgers' 7-Game August Slide Deepens

Q: With a rookie phenom pitching, can Tarik Skubal finally secure his first Dodgers win against baseball's most historic young pitching staff?

Yes—but only if Skubal is sharp enough to outduel Logan Henderson and get better support than he has in his first two Dodgers starts. Skubal has the stronger top-line résumé and is still one of baseball’s most efficient power pitchers. He leads major league starters with at least 10 starts in strikeout-to-walk ratio at 7.11, and his season line remains elite: a 2.93 ERA, 128 strikeouts and just 18 walks in 107 2/3 innings. That gives Los Angeles a real edge any time he takes the ball, even though he is still seeking his first Dodgers win. The challenge is that Milwaukee’s young staff is not just promising, but historically impressive. Henderson has been outstanding when healthy, posting a 2.88 ERA with 69 strikeouts and 11 walks in 56 1/3 innings, and he has not allowed more than three runs in any start. He also ranks third in that same strikeout-to-walk category, just behind teammate Jacob Misiorowski, whose recent dominance has fueled the idea that this may be one of the most electric young pitching groups the sport has seen. That means Skubal does not simply need to pitch well; he likely needs to be the better ace in a low-scoring game. The matchup favors a tight duel, with both starters limiting walks and missing bats. If the Dodgers give Skubal early run support and avoid wasting scoring chances, this is a very plausible spot for his first win. If Henderson continues his pattern of suppressing damage, Skubal could pitch well again and still leave without it.

3 articles · Updated · FanGraphs · Aug 17

Three losses in four games to Milwaukee knocked Los Angeles out of the majors' top spot, leaving the Dodgers three games behind the Brewers after a 7-game skid to open August.
A 93 second-half wRC+ after a 115 mark before the break captures the offensive drop-off, with Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernández and even Freddie Freeman all stuck in varying slumps.
Pitching has slipped too: Dodgers staff WAR fell from third in the first half to 21st in the second, Justin Wrobleski hit the IL, Shohei Ohtani remains out, and the bullpen has logged 21 second-half meltdowns.
Even so, FanGraphs still rates the Dodgers as baseball's top team by WAR and run differential, suggesting the slide is severe but not unprecedented for elite clubs.
Milwaukee's healthier rotation and airtight bullpen have turned the NL's top seed into the Brewers' race to lose, with the Dodgers now chasing rather than pacing the league.