US-Born Unemployment Rises as Net Migration Drops From 2.7 Million to 321,000

2 articles · Updated · Fortune · Aug 16

January Census data showed net international migration collapsing to 321,000 by mid-2026 from 2.7 million in 2024, a shift now showing up in the labor market.
October 2025 marked a crossover in Moody’s analysis: foreign-born unemployment fell below native-born unemployment as the immigrant labor force shrank, while overall labor demand weakened.
BLS data helps explain the mismatch: foreign-born workers are concentrated in construction, trucking, natural resources, health and personal care, and full-time immigrants earn 85.7% of native-born pay.
That means fewer immigrants have not broadly lifted native-born hiring or wages, because many Americans are unwilling or unprepared to take physically demanding, lower-paid or remote jobs.
The White House says wages are rising in sectors like construction and manufacturing, but New York Fed data found most industries have seen wage growth slow since 2022, feeding fears of a stagflationary supply shock.