AI Lifts 2026 DRAM Revenue 227% and HBM 70%, Extending Memory Shortages to 2028

Q: With AI monopolizing memory production, how much more will you be forced to pay for your next smartphone or PC?

You will likely pay noticeably more through 2027, with the biggest pain in budget devices and memory-heavy PCs. The best industry estimates point to average PC prices rising about 17% in 2026 versus 2025, and smartphone prices about 13%, with some entry-level phones already up more than 50%. The reason is that AI servers are soaking up the same DRAM and NAND used in phones and PCs. At FMS 2026, TrendForce said suppliers are prioritizing high-margin HBM and server products, leaving consumer markets with tighter supply until at least 2028. Yole projected average DRAM selling prices up 175% per gigabyte in 2026, while enterprise SSD spot prices have risen to about 6.5 times year-ago levels. That does not mean your next laptop or phone rises by that much, because memory is only part of the bill of materials, but it does mean vendors either raise prices, cut specs, or both. For PCs, the impact is already visible in retail RAM and SSD pricing, with some 32GB DDR5 kits rising from under $100 in 2025 to several hundred dollars in 2026. If you buy a prebuilt PC or laptop, makers are increasingly passing that through. For smartphones, analysts say memory can now exceed 30% of a phone’s bill of materials, and far more in low-end models, which is why cheaper phones are being hit hardest. Relief looks limited before late 2027 or 2028. Prices may stop spiking as violently, but most analysts do not expect them to return to 2025 levels soon.

2 articles · Updated · Forbes · Aug 16

Analysts at the 2026 FMS Conference said the memory and storage supercycle is still accelerating, with overall DRAM revenue projected to jump 227% in 2026 and HBM revenue 70%.
AI data-center buildouts are driving the surge: IBM cited more than $500 billion of 2026 spending on AI-optimized facilities, while HBM delivers 5-10 times DDR5 profit margins and consumes 3-4 times more wafers.
TrendForce expects HBM shipment growth to hold near 60% year over year as 2027 orders are negotiated, and sees DRAM supply-demand balance staying tight until 2028; NAND shortages may also persist as producers favor high-margin DRAM.
Storage prices are already reflecting that squeeze: enterprise SSD spot prices are about 6.5 times year-ago levels, and a 30TB QLC SSD costs roughly 16.4 times as much as a 30TB nearline HDD.
The boom is reshaping demand beyond servers, with server DRAM and HBM bit demand growing at a 37.4% CAGR through 2028 and consumer devices facing less memory and storage or higher prices.