Updated
Updated · Finimize · Aug 17
China Steel Output Falls 8.1% to 76.93 Million Tons as Mill Losses Widen
Updated
Updated · Finimize · Aug 17

China Steel Output Falls 8.1% to 76.93 Million Tons as Mill Losses Widen

1 articles · Updated · Finimize · Aug 17

Summary

  • 76.93 million metric tons of crude steel were produced in China in July, down 8.1% from June and 3.6% from a year earlier, marking the weakest July since 2017 and the weakest month since December.
  • 240 yuan per ton in average hot-rolled coil losses in July—up from 80 yuan in June—pushed more mills into the red, with only about one-third profitable by end-July versus roughly half in late June.
  • Summer demand cooling and earlier maintenance also curbed output, but analysts said shrinking margins were the bigger driver because mills tend to cut operating rates quickly when prices no longer cover cash costs.
  • 49.2 on China’s official manufacturing PMI in July, down from 50.3, signaled weaker new orders and suggested pressure on steel demand and mill profitability may persist.
  • That squeeze can still support prices near term by forcing supply cuts, with implications for iron ore demand and earnings across miners, steelmakers and downstream manufacturers.

Insights

Are China's plunging steel production and mounting mill losses the final warning signs of a deeper global manufacturing recession?
With Chinese steel mills slashing output to survive, could this sudden supply shock trigger an unexpected global price surge?
As domestic demand collapses, will rising global trade barriers trap millions of tons of surplus Chinese steel within its borders?