Updated
Updated · Funds Society · Aug 17
Natixis Sees 2.4% US Growth Outpacing Eurozone 0.7% as Warsh Fed Lifts Volatility Risk
Updated
Updated · Funds Society · Aug 17

Natixis Sees 2.4% US Growth Outpacing Eurozone 0.7% as Warsh Fed Lifts Volatility Risk

1 articles · Updated · Funds Society · Aug 17

Summary

  • 2.4% U.S. growth versus 0.7% in the eurozone should define the second half, with Natixis IM Solutions expecting the transatlantic economic split to persist through year-end.
  • Middle East-driven energy pressure is seen weighing on Europe more heavily, while any renewed escalation could jolt energy, bond and currency markets even without a broad market selloff.
  • Kevin Warsh’s Fed is a key uncertainty after dropping forward guidance, a shift Chetouane says leaves more room for policy surprises, higher capital costs and a bigger sovereign-bond risk premium.
  • Upward pressure on bond yields is expected to continue, prompting a shorter-duration stance with more liquidity or high-yield credit, while equities—especially growth and technology shares—remain overweight on earnings support.
  • U.S. domestic politics is the risk markets may be underpricing, with the approach of midterm elections seen as a potential source of social division and market disruption.

Insights

As energy shocks stifle European growth, will the resilient US economy eventually crack under the pressure of soaring yields?
Can robust corporate earnings truly outpace the looming threats of geopolitical chaos and rising capital costs in 2026?
With central banks ditching forward guidance, could this new era of unpredictability trigger a hidden crisis in sovereign bonds?