Updated
Updated · The Globe and Mail · Aug 17
Canada's July Inflation Hits 3% as Gasoline Prices Jump 25.7%
Updated
Updated · The Globe and Mail · Aug 17

Canada's July Inflation Hits 3% as Gasoline Prices Jump 25.7%

3 articles · Updated · The Globe and Mail · Aug 17

Summary

  • Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in July from 2.8% in June, a touch above expectations and the last major price reading before the Bank of Canada’s Sept. 2 decision.
  • Gasoline prices climbed 25.7% from a year earlier, up from 20.5% in June, after a U.S.-Iran ceasefire unraveled and renewed global energy volatility pushed oil costs higher.
  • Airfares rose 12% and travel tours accelerated as higher jet fuel costs and FIFA World Cup demand lifted travel prices, though economists expect those pressures to fade from August data.
  • Grocery inflation cooled to 3.1% from 3.9%, helping offset July’s price pressure, but economists said energy costs, a weak Canadian dollar and fertilizer disruptions could keep food prices elevated.
  • Markets still see nearly 99% odds of the Bank of Canada holding its 2.25% policy rate next month, with economists arguing trade risks and possible U.S. tariffs on about 5% of Canadian exports outweigh July’s inflation uptick.

Insights

Why did core inflation stay at 2.2% even as fuel, travel, and food costs climbed across Canada in July?
If Canada’s inflation hit 3% mainly because of gasoline, is this a temporary energy shock or the start of broader price pressure?
What do Canada’s widening provincial inflation gaps reveal about who is most exposed to the 2026 energy shock?