Paramount-Warner Merger Faces 22% Failure Odds as 12 States Press Lawsuit

2 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 17

Kalshi traders now price Paramount Skydance’s bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at a 74% chance of success by July 2027, leaving roughly 1-in-4 odds the deal fails.
Those odds have weakened since California and 11 other states sued on July 13 to block the merger; the success probability was above 80% before the case and fell as low as 66% after Paramount delayed closing to 2027.
Polymarket shows a similar view, with 23% odds that no acquisition of Warner Bros. succeeds by June 30, 2027.
The court fight is central because the merger’s termination date is March 4, 2027, extendable to June 4 if only regulatory issues remain, and a federal judge has set the states’ trial for March 2027.
That timeline raises costs and pressure: Paramount has said it will not close before a ruling or June 1, 2027, and would owe Warner Bros. shareholders 25 cents a share per quarter after Sept. 30 if the deal is still pending.