$74.8 billion was raised by US venture funds in the first half of 2026, nearly matching all of 2025, but 12 firms took about 75% of the capital and $1 billion-plus funds captured 68.3%.
67.7% of fund closes were under $50 million yet they drew just 4% of the money, while first-time funds fell to a decade low, underscoring a barbell market that rewards scale or sharp specialization.
17.1% one-year venture returns were driven by 21.6% asset-value gains tied to AI markups, but cash distributions ran only 11.7% to 12.8% of NAV versus an 18.7% long-run average.
Roughly $100 billion of secondary trading is expected this year as exits stay weak: the median company exiting above $500 million had raised $323.7 million, and valuation step-ups at exit shrank to 15.5% from 62.8% in 2021.
Fewer than 50 venture-backed IPOs have occurred in any year since 2022 despite more than 950 private unicorns, reinforcing a structural shift toward secondaries, private credit and tighter deal terms.