Russian Stock Indexes Plunge 30% in 3 Months as War and Seizures Darken Outlook

1 articles · Updated · theins.press · Aug 17

Russian stock indexes have dropped 30% over the past three months, leaving the Moscow Exchange Index near 2,300 and the RTS below 900—levels last seen around the war’s early shock and the 2020 pandemic panic.
The slide reflects expectations of weaker future profits under war damage, higher taxes, arbitrary property confiscations, falling investment and still-high borrowing costs, even though aggregate corporate profits in January-May were 99% of a year earlier.
Gazprom illustrates the damage: its shares sank 42% to a record 79 rubles in July before rebounding into the 90-ruble range, while losses across Russia's oil and gas sector still totaled at least 20%.
Financial stress is spreading beyond equities, with 62 bond defaults in July—six times a year earlier—and business bankruptcies up 11% in the first half, while observation-stage insolvency cases rose 21%.
The report argues the Bank of Russia's rate cuts to 14% cannot offset wartime distortions and may leave the economy facing stagflation, more defaults and possibly negative GDP growth.