Updated
Updated · Mumbrella · Aug 12
Australian Consumers Keep Spending as Sentiment Sinks to Recession-Level Lows
Updated
Updated · Mumbrella · Aug 12

Australian Consumers Keep Spending as Sentiment Sinks to Recession-Level Lows

2 articles · Updated · Mumbrella · Aug 12

Summary

  • AMP said Australians are still spending across retail and discretionary categories even as consumer sentiment sits at levels usually associated with a recession.
  • Diana Mousina attributed the pessimism to cost-of-living pressure, inflation, rate hikes, tariff fears and Middle East conflict, but said retail and inflation data show spending has not "fallen off a cliff."
  • AMP no longer uses consumer sentiment to forecast retail spending because it no longer correlates; furnishings, household equipment, clothing, footwear and recreation spending remain firm, while credit card balances still look manageable.
  • Mousina said the resilience is supported by unemployment near a 50-year low, strong global profit growth, average wealth gains and home prices still more than 50% above Covid-era levels.
  • For marketers, the message is that recession-style gloom has not translated into a pullback in demand, and AMP still expects positive economic growth ahead.

Insights

If Australian consumer sentiment is at a 50-year low, who is secretly funding the ongoing boom in discretionary retail spending?
Why did AMP abandon consumer sentiment forecasts, and what hidden metric actually predicts if shoppers will keep buying your products?
With 60% of mortgage holders stressed, is current retail resilience just a psychological coping mechanism before an inevitable economic cliff?