Crux Sees Clean Energy Capex Hitting $180 Billion as Q2 Tax Credit Transfers Set Record
Updated
Updated · The National Law Review · Aug 18
Crux Sees Clean Energy Capex Hitting $180 Billion as Q2 Tax Credit Transfers Set Record
3 articles · Updated · The National Law Review · Aug 18
Summary
$74 billion of clean energy and manufacturing capex flowed in H1 2026, and Crux said the market is on track to reach $180 billion this year after activity accelerated in Q2.
$14.9 billion of tax credit transfers closed in Q2 — a quarterly record — helping H1 volume reach $21 billion as buyers moved past delays tied to 2025 tax filings and new OBBBA requirements.
$143 billion in lending and $46.3 billion in tax and preferred equity are projected for 2026, with preferred equity more than doubling to $7.45 billion as investors seek structures less exposed to PFE risk.
PFE exposure has become the main driver of tax credit pricing, reshaping deal selection and pushing buyers toward lower-risk categories such as §45Z clean fuels, which reached $1.7 billion in H1 alone.
The report points to a market adapting rather than retreating after policy changes, building on 2025’s record $155 billion of investment and tax credit monetization above $63 billion.