Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 18
Fundstrat Sees Bitcoin Swinging 30% in 60 Days as Volatility Nears Record Lows
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 18

Fundstrat Sees Bitcoin Swinging 30% in 60 Days as Volatility Nears Record Lows

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 18

Summary

  • Bitcoin could move 30% or more over the next two months, Fundstrat said, after 30-day price swings fell to among the lowest levels on record.
  • Across eight similar low-volatility episodes, the median absolute move after 60 days was 30.2%, split evenly between four gains and four losses, making the signal about size rather than direction.
  • Bitcoin rose more than 2% on Monday but is still down nearly 27% this year; Fundstrat said the rebound was driven partly by short covering as coin-denominated perpetual-futures open interest fell about 8%.
  • Sean Farrell warned the bounce may fade as similar short squeezes in early June and early July did, while rising long-term real yields could be the trigger that finally breaks bitcoin out of its calm range.

Insights

With real yields surging, will Bitcoin’s eerie silence shatter into a massive breakout or a devastating plunge?
Could the upcoming Fed minutes be the spark that ignites Bitcoin’s most violent price swing of the year?