Updated
Updated · Benzinga · Aug 17
JPMorgan Downgrades Nike to Underweight, Cuts FY2027 EPS to $1.55 as China Sales Slide
Updated
Updated · Benzinga · Aug 17

JPMorgan Downgrades Nike to Underweight, Cuts FY2027 EPS to $1.55 as China Sales Slide

3 articles · Updated · Benzinga · Aug 17

Summary

  • JPMorgan cut Nike to Underweight and lowered its earnings forecasts to $1.55 for fiscal 2027 and $1.72 for 2028, arguing turnaround moves through late 2026 will keep pressuring profit into 2027 and 2028.
  • Nike’s direct-to-consumer push is central to that view: direct revenue rose 73% from 2020 to 2024, but operating margin fell to 8% from 13% as the company added overhead and ceded shelf space to rivals.
  • Greater China has become the biggest drag, with sales down for eight straight quarters and roughly 30% below 2021 levels even as China’s broader sportswear market expanded.
  • That points to market-share loss as domestic brands Anta and Li-Ning gain from 'China Chic,' while running specialists On and Hoka also chip away at Nike in technical footwear.
  • Nike still has about $9 billion in cash and insiders including CEO Elliott Hill and board member Tim Cook have bought shares, but the report says margin recovery must materialize before Wall Street regains confidence.

Insights

Nike's recent earnings got a massive hidden boost. Can the sportswear giant survive once this billion-dollar illusion fades?
With younger shoppers flocking to local brands and tech rivals, has the iconic swoosh permanently lost its global cool factor?