Yardeni Watches 10-Year Treasury Near 5% as Global Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 18
Yardeni Watches 10-Year Treasury Near 5% as Global Bond Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 18
Summary
The 10-year Treasury traded around 4.73% Tuesday, prompting Ed Yardeni to watch "bond vigilantes" more closely even as he said he is not yet "pushing the panic button."
Yardeni still expects the benchmark yield to stay in a 4.00%-5.00% range without hurting the economy or earnings, and said 5% should attract buyers as it did in 2023.
Global yields have climbed sharply: the 30-year U.S. bond hovered near 5.3%, Germany's 10-year bund hit a 15-year high, and Japan's 10-year note reached a multidecade high.
Stocks have come under pressure but not capitulated—U.S. futures slipped, Europe's Stoxx 600 edged lower, while Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.5% and Korea's Kospi lost more than 1%.
Yardeni said bond investors still have reasons to worry, including Federal Reserve policy and oil prices, with yields potentially tested again when the Fed releases July meeting minutes Wednesday.
Will the legendary bond vigilantes strike again if the 10-year yield shatters the 5% threshold, or is this our new normal?
With global yields hitting multi-decade highs, are consumers and housing markets quietly marching toward a breaking point despite apparent economic resilience?
How will the massive corporate debt needed for the AI boom survive in an era of surging global yields and expensive borrowing?