Updated
Updated · The Australian Financial Review · Aug 19
RBA Warns It Could Raise 4.35% Rate as Inflation Risks Threaten Wage Gains
Updated
Updated · The Australian Financial Review · Aug 19

RBA Warns It Could Raise 4.35% Rate as Inflation Risks Threaten Wage Gains

3 articles · Updated · The Australian Financial Review · Aug 19

Summary

  • Andrew Hauser said in Brisbane the RBA would not hesitate to lift rates from 4.35% if inflation risks materialise, sharpening its warning a day after holding policy steady.
  • Three risks drove the message: the war in Iran, heavy global investment in AI infrastructure and Australia's weak productivity growth, which Hauser said could keep price pressures elevated.
  • Australia's government acknowledged rising living costs are already eroding wage gains, underscoring the tension between slowing inflation and households still feeling squeezed.
  • The warning contrasts with the RBA's latest forecasts for wage growth to slow from 3.3% in 2026-27 to 2.9% by late 2028 as the labor market softens, leaving policy tilted between future cuts and renewed hikes.

Insights

As Australian wages stall and unemployment rises, could the RBA be forced to slash interest rates much sooner than 2027?
Are stalling wages and rising unemployment the painful but necessary cure for inflation, or a fast track to an economic recession?