Updated
Updated · tmgm.com · Aug 18
Swiss Franc Gains Funding Role as $75 Billion Yen Intervention Fears Lift CHF/JPY Shorts
Updated
Updated · tmgm.com · Aug 18

Swiss Franc Gains Funding Role as $75 Billion Yen Intervention Fears Lift CHF/JPY Shorts

3 articles · Updated · tmgm.com · Aug 18

Summary

  • ING said investors are increasingly using the Swiss franc to fund trades, favoring it over the yen as intervention risk makes yen-funded carry positions less attractive.
  • Low volatility in both currencies supports that shift, but cheaper franc borrowing costs and the threat of sudden yen-buying action from Tokyo and Washington give CHF funding an extra edge.
  • Short CHF/JPY is emerging as a preferred trade because it offers a carry-positive way to position for yen strength while using two currencies with similar funding characteristics.
  • For EUR/CHF, ING said a move toward 0.95 likely needs higher oil prices and broadly higher interest rates, since the Swiss National Bank's zero-rate stance tends to leave the franc underperforming.
  • The view builds on the roughly $75 billion-$85 billion U.S.-Japan intervention reported earlier, which pushed traders to shift carry funding from the yen into the franc.

Insights

Could the sudden shift to Swiss franc carry trades trigger an unexpected crisis if global interest rates shift?
Will Japan's massive US Treasury sell-off to fund currency interventions destabilize global bond markets?
If interventions only offer temporary relief, what happens when authorities finally exhaust their market leverage?