Updated
Updated · ms.now · Aug 19
MS NOW Rates Alaska Senate Race a Toss-Up, Opening Democrats' 51-Seat Path
Updated
Updated · ms.now · Aug 19

MS NOW Rates Alaska Senate Race a Toss-Up, Opening Democrats' 51-Seat Path

3 articles · Updated · ms.now · Aug 19

Summary

  • Alaska joined Maine, North Carolina and Ohio as Democrats’ top Senate pickup targets after MS NOW shifted the race between Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan to toss-up status.
  • Trump’s standing has weakened in Alaska, voters are focused on affordability, and Democrats have shown stronger energy in primaries and polling — conditions MS NOW says are tightening the race.
  • Peltola brings a proven statewide profile after winning Alaska’s 2022 special election and reelection that year, and she has significantly outraised Sullivan despite losing a 2024 House race to Nick Begich.
  • Tuesday’s all-party primary reinforced the uncertainty: Peltola slightly outpolled Sullivan, party vote shares were roughly even, and Alaska’s ranked-choice system could scramble the final result through exhausted ballots and vote-splitting.

Insights

Are historical polling difficulties in remote areas creating a false illusion of a toss-up election?
Could the unique mechanics of ranked-choice voting lead to an unexpected winner due to exhausted ballots?