MS NOW Rates Alaska Senate Race a Toss-Up, Opening Democrats' 51-Seat Path
Updated
Updated · ms.now · Aug 19
MS NOW Rates Alaska Senate Race a Toss-Up, Opening Democrats' 51-Seat Path
3 articles · Updated · ms.now · Aug 19
Summary
Alaska joined Maine, North Carolina and Ohio as Democrats’ top Senate pickup targets after MS NOW shifted the race between Mary Peltola and Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan to toss-up status.
Trump’s standing has weakened in Alaska, voters are focused on affordability, and Democrats have shown stronger energy in primaries and polling — conditions MS NOW says are tightening the race.
Peltola brings a proven statewide profile after winning Alaska’s 2022 special election and reelection that year, and she has significantly outraised Sullivan despite losing a 2024 House race to Nick Begich.
Tuesday’s all-party primary reinforced the uncertainty: Peltola slightly outpolled Sullivan, party vote shares were roughly even, and Alaska’s ranked-choice system could scramble the final result through exhausted ballots and vote-splitting.