Claude AI Sees 30-Year Mortgage Rates Falling to 5.70% by 2030

1 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 19

A base-case forecast puts 30-year fixed mortgage rates at 6.25% in 2026, easing to 6.05% in 2027 and 5.70% by 2030 rather than dropping sharply.
The projection combines economist views on 10-year Treasury yields near 3.9% to 4.1% through 2030 with a mortgage spread that gradually narrows from 2.15 percentage points to 1.8.
March 2026 data showed that spread already near 1.91 points, with a 4.09% 10-year Treasury yield and a 6.00% 30-year mortgage rate, supporting the normalization thesis.
Claude AI's bull case sees rates near 5.00% by 2030 if inflation returns to 2% and Fed tightening fully unwinds, while its bear case has rates hitting 7.00% by 2027 before easing to 6.60%.
The outlook suggests buyers and refinancers should not expect a return to 3% mortgages in the next five years unless a recession or other major shock radically changes rates.