Wheat Nears 3-Year High as Black Sea Attacks Threaten 17% of Global Cereal Exports
Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Aug 19
Wheat Nears 3-Year High as Black Sea Attacks Threaten 17% of Global Cereal Exports
2 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Aug 19
Summary
Benchmark wheat futures climbed to near three-year highs as Russian and Ukrainian attacks on ports and commercial vessels disrupted Black Sea grain shipping during the peak post-harvest export season.
About 86 million tonnes of exports — 17% of global cereal trade — are at risk this year, Oxford Economics said, with Russia and Ukraine together supplying roughly 30% of world wheat demand.
Ukraine’s grain exports this month are down about 75% from a year earlier, while SovEcon expects Russia’s August shipments to fall to 2.2 million tonnes from 4.6 million tonnes in August 2025.
Alternative Ukrainian routes by rail and the Danube can replace only about 17 million tonnes, and low Danube water levels plus strikes on Izmail are further constraining capacity.
Oxford Economics now expects global food prices to rise 11.8% this year, with analysts warning wheat markets still underprice the risk of a prolonged Black Sea supply shock.