Calamos' Michael Grant Backs Cyclical Stocks as US GDP Growth Slows to 1.5%

1 articles · Updated · Business Insider · Aug 20

Michael Grant said investors should stay in cyclical rather than defensive stocks, arguing the US remains in a “durable expansion” despite a negative July jobs print and weaker retail sales.
Grant tied that view to manufacturing and AI: July ISM Manufacturing PMI expanded for a seventh straight month, while AI-driven productivity should lower labor costs and support profits.
His preferred trades center on industrials, which make up about 34% of the Calamos Phineus Long/Short Fund and are emerging from what he called a three-year earnings recession.
Transportation is a key subset, with Grant favoring airlines and railroads as airfares remain 10%-15% below inflation-adjusted 2020 levels and rail shipping benefits from higher road freight costs.
The call runs against fresh signs of slowing growth, including second-quarter GDP easing to 1.5% from 2.1%, underscoring his bet that cyclical gains can broaden beyond technology.