Investors Push Fed Hike Bet to Jan 2027 as $94 Oil Fails to Revive Tightening Fears
Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Aug 20
Investors Push Fed Hike Bet to Jan 2027 as $94 Oil Fails to Revive Tightening Fears
3 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Aug 20
Summary
Traders have pushed the next fully priced Fed quarter-point hike to January 2027 from October 2026 after softer US inflation and an unexpected drop in non-farm payrolls.
UK rate expectations also eased: swaps now show a 63% chance of a Bank of England hike before December, down from 84%, with a second move shifted to April from March.
Oil near $94 a barrel has reignited inflation worries in long-dated bonds, but slowing wage growth and data in both economies have strengthened the view that fresh tightening can still be avoided.
Fed July minutes said most policymakers expect inflation to step down as tariff and earlier energy effects fade, though officials still signaled they could act in mid-September if price pressures reheat.
The repricing is not universal: markets still expect the ECB to raise rates by September, reflecting stronger inflation concerns in Europe than in the US or UK.