JPMorgan Says 6.6% Q4 Midterm Gain Is Historical Average, Not 2026 Forecast

1 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 20

JPMorgan’s widely shared 6.6% fourth-quarter figure refers to the S&P 500’s average return in past midterm years, not a prediction for Q4 2026.
The distinction matters because the historical pattern assumes three weak quarters before a rebound, while SPY is up 12.78% year to date and 20.2% over the past year.
The bank also never published a 42-day countdown; that number is simply the calendar gap from Aug. 20 to Oct. 1, not a trading signal from JPMorgan research.
JPMorgan’s July 8 note tied any typical midterm rally to fading election uncertainty, saying markets often start rising just under a month before the Nov. 3 vote—closer to early October than the quarter boundary.