Updated
Updated · Trefis · Aug 20
Synopsys Options Price $240-$665 13-Month Range as Implied Volatility Trails 57% Realized
Updated
Updated · Trefis · Aug 20

Synopsys Options Price $240-$665 13-Month Range as Implied Volatility Trails 57% Realized

1 articles · Updated · Trefis · Aug 20

Summary

  • $401 Synopsys shares carry an options-implied 13-month band of roughly $240 to $665, a range framed as about a two-in-three outcome after the stock fell 35.8% over the past year.
  • 48.5% at-the-money implied volatility sits below the stock's 57.0% realized volatility and in the 35th percentile of its one-year range, suggesting the wide band reflects time horizon more than a fear premium.
  • $240 is about $161 below the current price, implying a roughly one-in-six chance of finishing beneath that floor, while the higher upside span is largely a mathematical effect because losses stop at zero.
  • August 26 fiscal Q3 results and a September investor day fall inside that window, while about $400 million in Ansys-related revenue synergies are not expected until fiscal 2027, which begins in November.
  • Demand remains uneven as hyperscaler AI spending supports verification and interconnect IP, but industrial and automotive design starts are growing far more slowly, leaving holders to weigh position size against a very wide distribution.

Insights

Why is the options market ignoring recent volatility just days before Synopsys reveals its critical Q3 earnings and Ansys integration progress?
Can new AI-driven pricing models propel Synopsys to its $665 ceiling, or will sluggish auto markets drag the stock down to $240?