Cardinals Open 3-Game Phillies Series After 10-9 Reds Escape

Q: With playoff tiebreakers on the line, who will the Cardinals trust on the mound to stop Philadelphia's surging offense?

The Cardinals had not announced a Friday starter, so the immediate answer is that Oliver Marmol was still keeping that decision open heading into the opener in Philadelphia. Given the club’s recent rotation usage and publicly known options, the likely candidates are Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy or Hunter Dobbins. Liberatore has been working in the rotation regularly, but he is coming off a rough outing against Colorado in which he allowed five earned runs in five innings and carries a 5.15 ERA over 23 starts. McGreevy has the stronger full-season line, a 3.64 ERA in 23 starts, though he has struggled lately with an 8.00 ERA over his last four starts. Dobbins has made a case as a steadier recent option, allowing three earned runs over his last 11 1/3 innings and giving up just one run in five innings against Philadelphia on Aug. 10. That recent success against the Phillies makes Dobbins the most logical trust play if St. Louis wants the best recent matchup fit against a hot Philadelphia lineup led by Bryce Harper and Luis Arraez. McGreevy would also be a defensible choice based on his broader body of work. Liberatore appears the riskiest option entering a game against Jesús Luzardo, who has been one of Philadelphia’s sharpest starters. So, officially, the Cardinals were still TBD on Friday morning. But if the priority is the best recent form against this opponent, Dobbins stands out as the most sensible choice.

Q: Can Jesus Luzardo's elite new sweeper shut down St. Louis's red-hot rookies before they steal another wild-card spot?

Yes—Luzardo has the profile to do it, and he is the clear edge in Friday’s opener. Philadelphia’s left-hander is not just pitching well on the surface with an 11-5 record and 3.23 ERA; the underlying indicators described in recent coverage suggest he has been even better. Since mid-June, he has performed like one of the sport’s top starters, and over his past three outings he has struck out 28 hitters. The biggest reason is the sweeper, now his signature pitch. It is his most-used offering, opponents are hitting just .117 against it, and it has generated 113 strikeouts, one of the highest totals for any individual pitch in the majors. That matters against a St. Louis lineup driven by young bats. Jordan Walker is scorching hot, with hits in six straight games, three homers and 10 RBIs in that span. JJ Wetherholt has become a major catalyst at the top of the order and has played with unusual poise for a rookie. But Luzardo’s mix gives him answers for both lefties and righties: the sweeper for chase and weak contact, upper-90s fastballs for power, and a changeup that misses bats against right-handed hitters. The Cardinals are dangerous enough to pressure Philadelphia later in the game, especially given St. Louis’ recent resilience and the wild-card stakes. But if the question is whether Luzardo’s elite new sweeper can cool off the Cardinals’ rookies in this matchup, the evidence says yes—more likely than not.

3 articles · Updated · Deadspin · Aug 21

St. Louis arrives in Philadelphia after a chaotic 10-9 win over Cincinnati, turning a two-out ninth-inning misplay by Dane Myers into the go-ahead rally and a fifth straight series victory.
That surge has pushed the Cardinals to 12-6 over their past 18 games and within 2 1/2 games of the NL's final wild-card spot, with Jordan Walker adding a six-game hitting streak.
Philadelphia counters with its own momentum: a season-best six-game winning streak has lifted the Phillies to 12 games over .500 and into the second wild-card position.
Jesus Luzardo, 11-5 with a 3.23 ERA, starts Friday for Philadelphia after striking out 28 batters over his last 21 2/3 innings; St. Louis had not named a starter.