Updated
Updated · investinglive.com · Aug 19
ECB's Rehn Sees No Second-Round Inflation Effects Yet as Markets Price 90% September Hike Odds
Updated
Updated · investinglive.com · Aug 19

ECB's Rehn Sees No Second-Round Inflation Effects Yet as Markets Price 90% September Hike Odds

3 articles · Updated · investinglive.com · Aug 19

Summary

  • Olli Rehn said wage growth in the euro zone remains moderate and shows no clear second-round inflation effects yet, signaling no fresh evidence of a wage-price spiral.
  • Anchored inflation expectations will be essential to keep that pattern intact, Rehn said, framing expectations management as the key safeguard against broader price pressures.
  • Markets still expect tighter policy: traders are pricing about a 90% chance of a September ECB rate hike and roughly 58 basis points of increases by June next year.
  • Even after another hike, the ECB deposit rate would reach only 2.50%, a level seen as just marginally restrictive if the bank later has to confront a more persistent inflation problem.

Insights

With energy prices driving inflation, is the ECB's hyper-focus on wage growth blinding them to the real economic threat?
If a September rate hike is almost certain, what hidden data could force the ECB to push rates into dangerous territory?