U.S.-Canada Trade Rift Threatens 4 Million Bpd Oil Flows as 50% Tariffs Deepen
Updated
Updated · Forbes · Aug 25
U.S.-Canada Trade Rift Threatens 4 Million Bpd Oil Flows as 50% Tariffs Deepen
3 articles · Updated · Forbes · Aug 25
Summary
About 4 million barrels a day of Canadian crude flow to the U.S., and the talks' collapse has raised the risk that retaliation could spill into energy even though crude was excluded from the new tariffs.
That trade is hard to replace on either side: Canadian barrels supplied 63% of U.S. crude imports in 2025, while U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast refineries are configured for Alberta's heavy oil.
A disruption would likely cut refinery utilization, squeeze gasoline and diesel yields, and lift pump prices in an already tight global market with few easy substitute supplies.
Canada also faces its own exposure because oil exports to the U.S. are a major revenue source, and eastern provinces depend heavily on U.S.-linked imports and pipelines crossing northern U.S. states.
The standoff is also clouding pipeline investment, including the proposed Prairie Connector project targeting 550,000 bpd and a final investment decision in 2027.