Updated
Updated · The Globe and Mail · Aug 20
Buffett Urges 10-Year Stock Picks as His Valuation Gauge Hits 238%
Updated
Updated · The Globe and Mail · Aug 20

Buffett Urges 10-Year Stock Picks as His Valuation Gauge Hits 238%

3 articles · Updated · The Globe and Mail · Aug 20

Summary

  • 238% — the Buffett indicator has climbed to a record high, and Buffett is still telling investors to focus on stocks they would be willing to own for 10 years.
  • That advice comes as the S&P 500 has surged more than 102% since the start of 2023 and the Shiller CAPE sits near dot-com-era extremes, even with uncertainty around the Iran war and the AI trade.
  • Buffett has warned investors are in a stronger "gambling mood" than ever, but he is not arguing for a wholesale move to cash despite Berkshire building nearly a $400 billion cash pile before putting some money to work in the second quarter.
  • His playbook remains to buy wonderful companies at fair prices rather than chase quick gains — a framework reflected in Berkshire holdings such as Coca-Cola and its newer Alphabet stake.

Insights

Why did the ultimate value investor quietly embrace the AI boom by backing the very tech giants driving today's stretched valuations?
With massive AI spending peaking in 2026, will the widening revenue shortfall finally trigger the next great market collapse?