Primary Polls Missed Races by 10 Points as Error Runs 3 Times Higher
Updated
Updated · PBS NewsHour · Aug 20
Primary Polls Missed Races by 10 Points as Error Runs 3 Times Higher
1 articles · Updated · PBS NewsHour · Aug 20
Summary
Primary polling this year has repeatedly missed high-profile races, with Michigan's Democratic Senate contest shrinking from double-digit Abdul El-Sayed polling leads to a 1-point win over Haley Stevens.
Ipsos said primary polls are notoriously hard to get right, with error running about three times higher than in rigorous national polls because many are funded cheaply and use weaker methods.
Michigan's dominant text-to-web surveys appeared to overreach younger, more progressive voters and miss moderates, while one more rigorous phone poll performed better at capturing Stevens support.
Wisconsin's Democratic governor primary was distorted by chaos rather than just methodology: three candidates dropped out, one reentered and won, and polls still showed 30% to 40% of voters undecided weeks before Election Day.
A fake pollster, Median Strategies, also posted fabricated numbers as a 'social experiment,' underscoring analysts' advice to trust polls only when the sponsor, methodology and named researchers are transparent.