RBC Flags S&P 500 Midterm Swings in 2018 and 2022 as Tail-Risk Guide
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 22
RBC Flags S&P 500 Midterm Swings in 2018 and 2022 as Tail-Risk Guide
2 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 22
Summary
RBC said the S&P 500 in both 2018 and 2022 peaked in August or September, fell to an October low, rebounded in November and slipped again in December.
Those sharp second-half swings still helped form more durable market lows into the following year, though strategist Lori Calvasina said the bank is not forecasting the same turbulence ahead.
Fed policy and rate worries shaped both midterm years, while trade tensions weighed in 2018 and a tech earnings slump plus the Russia-Ukraine war complicated 2022.
RBC also found defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples and Health Care tended to outperform during sell-offs, while Financials, Industrials and Materials led rebounds.
Current signals are mixed: high price momentum has resumed outperformance, EPS quality has weakened, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 forward P/E multiples sit near the middle of post-COVID ranges.