Michael Howell Sees 30-Year Yield Hitting 6% as Bitcoin Tracks Wholesale Liquidity
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 22
Michael Howell Sees 30-Year Yield Hitting 6% as Bitcoin Tracks Wholesale Liquidity
3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Aug 22
Summary
2026 is unlikely to be a big year for Bitcoin, Michael Howell said, arguing the token’s weakness reflects a squeeze in wholesale market liquidity rather than a breakdown in the usual M2-based narrative.
AI capital spending and a U.S. deficit nearing 6% of GDP are pulling cash toward the real economy, he said, crowding liquidity out of financial markets and weighing on Bitcoin, Ethereum and other crypto assets.
Six-week changes in global liquidity, shifted forward by three months, have tracked a crypto basket weighted 60% Bitcoin, 30% Ether and 10% Solana, which Howell cited as better evidence than headline money-supply measures.
30-year Treasury yields are likely to climb toward 6%, he said, as nominal GDP runs at a 6%-8% annualized pace, raising refinancing pressure on private borrowers that locked in much lower rates.
2027 could mark the low point of the global liquidity cycle, Howell said, potentially creating more room for Bitcoin to recover once that drain on financial markets eases.