Scientists Debate 'Super' Label for El Niño That Could Top 3 Extreme Events

Q: Why do scientists refuse to call the historic 2026 El Nino a super event despite its unprecedented global threats?

Scientists are not refusing to acknowledge the danger; they are sticking to the official classification system. NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization do not recognize “super El Niño” as a formal category. Their standardized scale uses three-month averages and labels events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong. By that measure, the 2026 event is forecast to be “very strong,” even if it may rival or exceed the biggest events on record. Experts say using an unofficial label would not improve the science or the warning. Michael McPhaden, a longtime NOAA El Niño researcher, has said there is no need for a new category because the real issue is not the nickname but the impacts. A stronger label does not change the forecast risks of flooding, drought, heat, wildfire, marine disruption, or shifts in hurricane activity. Scientists are also being careful because El Niño strength is measured with specific indices, now increasingly including NOAA’s Relative Oceanic Niño Index, which adjusts for broader tropical ocean warming. That matters in a hotter climate, where raw sea-surface temperatures can make events appear more extreme. Even with that adjustment, forecasters say this event still has a high chance of becoming historic. So the hesitation is about precision, not complacency. Meteorologists want the public and governments to focus less on dramatic branding and more on preparedness for what could be one of the most consequential El Niño events ever observed.

3 articles · Updated · USA TODAY · Aug 22

NOAA still classifies the current El Niño as "very strong," but scientists are increasingly debating whether "super" fits as the event builds toward a potentially record 2026 peak.
Three-month averages underpin NOAA's official scale—weak, moderate, strong and very strong—yet some researchers now say extra language may be useful if this El Niño matches or exceeds past peaks.
Michael Mann said it could become the largest El Niño on record, while retired NOAA scientist Michael McPhaden said it should rival or surpass the extreme 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 events.
Those 3 extreme El Niños in the past 50 years are the main benchmark, and McPhaden said another major event in 2026-27 would mean 3 major El Niños within a decade—unseen in 150 years of instrumental records.
Scientists say the naming fight matters less for public safety than communicating impacts, echoing NOAA's broader push to focus weather messaging on consequences rather than labels alone.