$1.2 trillion in annual revenue within 10 years is the hurdle Aswath Damodaran calculates for Anthropic to support a $2 trillion valuation, even assuming a 30% after-tax margin and 10% cost of capital.
That target is about 18 times Anthropic’s July revenue run rate of more than $65 billion and would require roughly $360 billion in after-tax operating income; a 15-year path would push the revenue need toward $2 trillion.
Anthropic’s sales have surged from about $9 billion at the end of 2025 to more than $65 billion annualized by July, and the company reportedly projects $190 billion to $200 billion in 2028 revenue.
Damodaran estimates today’s entire AI products-and-services market at roughly $250 billion, arguing a multitrillion-dollar outcome depends on AI replacing workers broadly enough to trigger political resistance and regulation.
Amazon already has up to $33 billion committed to Anthropic and a deal for the startup to spend more than $100 billion on AWS over a decade, leaving the tech giant heavily exposed to whether that growth materializes.