Persian Gulf Keeps 8 Million Bpd Shut In as Berman Warns Some Wells May Never Recover
Updated
Updated · Fox News · Aug 23
Persian Gulf Keeps 8 Million Bpd Shut In as Berman Warns Some Wells May Never Recover
3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Aug 23
Summary
8 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf output remains shut in, Art Berman said, arguing the deeper threat after the Iran attack is lost production capacity rather than tanker traffic through Hormuz.
Restarting wells is "not like turning on a switch," Berman said, because extended shutdowns can damage reservoir performance; he estimates about 80% may return near prior levels only after weeks or months.
IEA data broadly supports the scale of the disruption, showing Gulf production still 8.3 million bpd below pre-war levels in July, while EIA put July shut-ins at 5.5 million bpd and expects constraints to worsen in August.
Wood Mackenzie is more optimistic, projecting affected fields could recover to about 70% of prior output within three months and 90% within six, though the last roughly 1 million bpd may take much longer.
The White House says falling oil prices, an open Hormuz route and record U.S. output limit the long-term threat, but Berman argues global crude quality needs and trade flows still leave American consumers exposed.