Oxford Economics Sees 11.8% Global Food Price Jump in 2026 as Wars and Heatwaves Hit Wheat
Updated
Updated · Euronews · Aug 19
Oxford Economics Sees 11.8% Global Food Price Jump in 2026 as Wars and Heatwaves Hit Wheat
1 articles · Updated · Euronews · Aug 19
Summary
11.8% is Oxford Economics’ forecast for global food-price inflation in 2026, with crops and dairy facing the sharpest pressure and wheat expected to rise 36% year on year to $6.92 a bushel in Q3.
36% higher diesel prices in July and a projected 22% rise in fertiliser costs are a major driver, as the US-Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption lift key farm-input costs.
86 million tonnes of annual grain-export capacity in Russia and Ukraine could be affected by attacks on ports, terminals and ships—equal to almost 17% of global cereal exports.
286.6 million tonnes is Coceral’s revised EU-27 and UK grain-harvest forecast, down from 295.5 million and well below 2025’s 310 million, while Germany’s harvest is seen falling 7% to 41.9 million tonnes.
Oxford said fresh fruit and vegetable prices could show up in shops within two to three months, while processed foods such as bread, pasta and cheese may feel the biggest consumer impact in early 2027.