Anthropic Faces $725 Billion Revenue Test for $2 Trillion Valuation, Ahn Warns

1 articles · Updated · Benzinga · Aug 23

$2 trillion for Anthropic would require about $725 billion in revenue by 2036 at a 10% cost of equity, rising to roughly $950 billion at 13%, according to Tessera PE CEO Dr. Chan Ahn.
That hurdle looks steep because Anthropic’s projected Q2 operating margin is only 5.1%, implying free cash flow margins would need to expand sharply even as it keeps spending heavily on computing and price competition.
Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate reached $65 billion by late July—up from $47 billion in May and about sevenfold year over year—but Ahn said investors are being asked to underwrite both extreme growth and major margin expansion.
SpaceX’s public-market path offers the cautionary frame: after debuting near a $1.77 trillion valuation and jumping 67%, its shares later gave back gains as earnings scrutiny intensified; Ahn says the first public earnings report, not insider unlocks, is the real test.
Ahn argues most of the $2 trillion case is a sector bet on AI and enterprise workflows, not a lasting Claude technology edge, leaving investors exposed to concentration risk in a single name.