Cook Rates Texas Senate Toss-Up, Governor Leans Right as Polls Show Democrats Up 2-4 Points
Updated
Updated · The Center Square · Aug 23
Cook Rates Texas Senate Toss-Up, Governor Leans Right as Polls Show Democrats Up 2-4 Points
3 articles · Updated · The Center Square · Aug 23
Summary
Cook Political Report shifted Texas’s Senate race to toss-up and downgraded the governor’s race to leans right, a notable warning for two contests long seen as safely Republican.
Three recent polls put Democrat James Talarico ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton by 2 to 4 points, while Gov. Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa by just 1 to 5 points despite seeking a fourth term.
Cook tied the movement to voter anger over Trump-era economic strains — tariffs, the Iran conflict, high fuel and fertilizer costs, rural data-center expansion and foreign beef imports — plus Paxton’s scandals and weak standing with independents.
Abbott still holds a $67 million campaign war chest, more than 20 times Hinojosa’s, but Cook said opposition to data centers, a $1 billion school voucher program and new redistricting has made the race worth watching.
Both Republican campaigns dismissed the ratings as part of a broader national trend, while Democrats argued the new outlook shows Texas voters are increasingly open to ending decades of GOP dominance.