West Burns Through Two-Thirds of PAC-3 Stocks as Interceptor Shortage Deepens
Updated
Updated · missilematters.substack.com · Aug 23
West Burns Through Two-Thirds of PAC-3 Stocks as Interceptor Shortage Deepens
1 articles · Updated · missilematters.substack.com · Aug 23
Summary
An estimated two-thirds of the U.S. PAC-3 arsenal has already been fired in the Middle East, leaving Western governments scrambling to rebuild stocks while still trying to arm Ukraine against heavier Russian ballistic missile attacks.
Low- to mid-double-digit monthly output means replacement will take years, while China, Iran, North Korea and Russia are expanding missile arsenals at industrial scale faster than Western suppliers can add interceptors.
The economics worsen the gap: interceptors cost several times more than the missiles they target, and two or more are often needed per shot, pushing the cost disadvantage toward 10-to-1 before radar and launcher costs.
That arithmetic leaves the attacker structurally favored, the report argues, forcing Western policymakers toward either narrower point defense backed by credible counterstrike or cheaper mass-producible interceptor programs that remain unproven.
With critical production bottlenecks delaying new interceptors until 2028, how will vulnerable allies survive the current industrial-scale missile onslaught?
If intercepting a missile costs ten times more than launching one, is the era of impenetrable Western air defense officially over?